test CS:GO drops and cases guide by GERMIA – GERMIA
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CS:GO drops and cases guide by GERMIA

It has been a long time since Valve started making skins for CS:GO and still there are some not publicly known facts about skins and cases. Today i want to make a guide about CS:GO weapon cases. How to open them, their drop chance and how to deal with them.

In-game droppable items

You can drop maximum of 6 drops every single week. Usually, You’ll get around 3-4 skin drops and 2-3 case drops if you play a lot. Drops reseted on Thursday,


Weapon Cases were introduced in August 2013. Since then players have a chance to receive weapon cases (or a less valuable skins or a sticker capsule) as a drop after each completed game on a VAC secured server. Weapon cases can be opened with matching key available from CS:GO store or Steam market.

The types of weapon cases:

1) Black case – Valve created weapon skins.

2) eSports case – Valve created weapon skins, supports the CS:GO eSport gaming scene.

3) Yellow case – Community created weapon skins, supports the skins‘ authors.

There are always 3-5 cases in rotation in the item drop system and as new cases come in, old cases are phased out. Some cases are for Operation pass-holders only. Older Operation cases can be dropped to anyone after Valve´s release.


Sticker Capsules are a type of container, that could dropped after each completed game on a VAC secured server and require a corresponding sticker capsule key to be used in order to be opened. When opened, the player will receive a random sticker from the capsule’s sticker series.

The types of sticker capsules:

1) Yellow – Valve created stickers.

2) Red – community created stickers, supports the autor of the stickers.

3) Blue – event based stickers sold directly from the in-game store during major tournaments or events.This sticker capsule can´t be dropped in-game.


Packages are a type of container dropped during a championship match or purchased from the in-game store.They don´t require a key to be opened.

The types of packages:

1) Souvenir Packages – dropped packages containing a weapon skin with yellow „Souvenir“ quality and with stickers applied.

2) Gift Packages – packages sold in game during the winter holiday to be gifted to other players as an in-game drop of skin.


Players have a chance to receive weapon skins as a drop after each completed game on a VAC secured server. These skins include skins of Consumer Grade, Industrial Grade, Mil-Spec and Restricted quality from the Train, Mirage, Safehouse, Italy, Lake, Dust II and Bank collection.

The most valuable skins, that can be dropped in-game are:

Tec-9 Red Quartz, MAG-7 | Bulldozer, M4A1-S Nitro, AWP Pit Viper,

Dual Berettas Cobalt Quartz, P2000 Amber Fade, AK-47 Emerald Pinstripe

Weapons originating from cases, knives, Stattrak weapons, and keys can´t be dropped in-game or from a mission. Knives and Stattrak weapons can only be obtained from opening crates or bought on the Steam Market while keys can only be bought from Valve.


Mission were first introduced in Operation Breakout. They will not drop for players without the Operation Pass, that can be bought in-game.

Completing a mission will give you a weapon drop from specific collections, that can´t be found through regular item-drop system.

Weapon cases – opening, buying, selling

Players can get weapon cases as a drop after each completed game on a VAC secured server or buy them on Steam market from other players.

What´s the price?

The price depends on many factors like on every aother marketplace (supply and demand):

1) How many cases are dropped in-game

There are always 3-5 cases in rotation in the item drop system and as new cases come in, old cases are phased out. In the current drop system, there is Chroma case, Vanguard case, Phoenix case, Breakout case and Huntsman case. These cases belong to the cheapest on the market because of their vast numbers. Players have a rare chance of dropping some older case like Bravo case, which price is now really high.

Some cases drop exclusively to the operation ticket holders (when there is some operation active-Breakout, Phoenix, …), so the exclusivity affect their number and the price.

2) How old the case is

Keep in mind, that cases are consumables, so their numbers (even there are a lot of them) are sinking every day, when they are not dropped in-game. And it really affect the price a lot.

New cases are quite overpriced, old cases´price rise.

3) What weapon skins are in the case

Even if the case is old and there are not so many of them left on the market, it´s the weapon skins, that determine the price. For example old CS:GO Weapon Case 3, that doesn´t drop in game anymore and there is about 30 000 of them, costs about 0,10 Euro. On of the newer cases, Operation Phoenix Weapon Case, that still drops and there are about 300 000 of them, costs the same. And it´s only because Case 3 contains mainly unattractive pistol skins.

How to open them?

The cases can be opened with matching key available from CS:GO store or Steam market. It´s usually better to buy a key in-game, where there are currently available for 2.29 Euro, than on the Steam market (aprox. 2,5 Euro).

If you´re not sure how does the opening functions, you can make a rough try in one of the opening simulators in your browser or on your smartphone:

CS:GO Case opening simulators:

BROWSER: http://convars.com/case/

ANDROID: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.synthdark.casesimulatorfree.android&hl=cs

Cases drop chance studies:

If you´re still not sure if it´s worth to open a case, there are some studies I´ve found for you, that recorded drops from cases and made a calculation of drop chances you have by opening cases:

1) 347 cases study by Crosscade

Mil-spec (Blue) Drops: 78.8% (287)

Restricted (Purple) Drops: 16.2% (59)

Classified (Pink) Drops: 2.5% (9)

Covert (Orange) Drops: 1.6% (6)

Exceedingly Rare (Yellow) Drops: 0.8% (3)

StatTrack Chance = 8% (28)

2) 259 CS:GO weapon cases study by PieceMaker42

Mil-spec (Blue) Drops: 206 – 79,5 %

Restricted (Purple) Drops: 46 – 17,8 %

Classified (Pink) Drops: 3 – 1,2 %

Covert (Orange) Drops: 3 – 1,2 %

Exceedingly Rare (Yellow) Drops: 1 – 0,38%

3) 2023 cases study by Shadowolf1212

Blue: 1594 (78.79%)

Purple: 343 (16.96%)

Pink: 57 (2.82%)

Red: 20 (0.99%)

Knife: 9 (0.44%)

1619 cases – counting stattrak drops:

146 Stattrak – 9% chance

0.44% knives – 0.04% chance stattrak knife

4) 1088 cases study by Array

Blue Mil-spec – 69,94485294117647 %

Blue Mil-spec StatTrak – 8,180147058823529 %

Purple Restricted – 14,98161764705882 %

Purple Restricted StatTrak – 1,746323529411765 %

Pink Classified – 3,308823529411765 %

Pink Classified StatTrak – 0,2757352941176471 %

Red Covert – 1,011029411764706 %

Red Covert StatTrak – 0,0919117647058824 %

Yellow Exceedingly Rare (knife) – 0,4595588235294118 %

Yellow Exceedingly Rare StatTrak – < 0.1 %

5) 3000 Huntsman case opening on Case Simulator:

As an example of what could happen when you speak about chances, there is one screen from opening 3000 cases (spent almost 3 500 dollars) on case simulator without dropping any knife:







Published: 27.12.15 3:03, Pacific Standard Time

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